ken_p (![[info]](http://l-stat.livejournal.com/img/userinfo.gif){kind=small} ken_p) wrote,@ 2006-09-17 09:10:00 |
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Pogo-stick Poker
We have met the enemy and he is us! – Pogo
but, that isn't exactly what we are talking about.
During the WSOP I've been a reader of RPG; but that is a whole other story and more suited to The National Inquirer. Today, someone called OldWolf lamented over his misfortune and even provided a hand history. It detailed another horrible beat which is his lamented lot in life. Sounded like he played a bunch of tournaments and not reached the first break.
PokerStars Game #5960074191: Tournament #29830440, $3.00+$0.30 Hold'em
No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2006/08/18 - 04:49:00 (ET)
Table '29830440 43' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: biksta (670 in chips)
Seat 2: QONF&@* (1240 in chips)
Seat 3: squeakyh11 (3165 in chips)
Seat 4: ace1ofhearts (1395 in chips)
Seat 5: oscelio (2985 in chips)
Seat 6: Old Wolf NZ (3495 in chips)
Seat 7: noofster (2180 in chips)
Seat 8: brnblk (1440 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 9: Alchera (2010 in chips)
Old Wolf NZ: posts small blind 15
noofster: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Old Wolf NZ [Qd Qs]
brnblk: folds
Alchera: folds
biksta: raises 30 to 60
QONF&@*: raises 30 to 90
squeakyh11: folds
ace1ofhearts: folds
oscelio: calls 90
Old Wolf NZ: raises 3405 to 3495 and is all-in
noofster: folds
biksta: calls 610 and is all-in
QONF&@*: folds
oscelio: calls 2895 and is all-in
*** FLOP *** [8s 3c 7c]
*** TURN *** [8s 3c 7c] [3s]
*** RIVER *** [8s 3c 7c 3s] [Ks]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Old Wolf NZ: shows [Qd Qs] (two pair, Queens and Threes)
oscelio: shows [As Kh] (two pair, Kings and Threes)
oscelio collected 4630 from side pot
biksta: shows [4c Ad] (a pair of Threes)
oscelio collected 2130 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Seat 5: oscelio (button) showed [As Kh] and won (6760) with two pair,
Kings and Threes
What does this jewel tell us?
First, the game has barely begun. Blinds are at Level II. And, it is a low rent tournament with even more novice players than the norm. That is a good time to try to build a stack but it is also the time of the most suckouts.
Our hero is in the small blind. The betting is: a raise from early position; a reraise from early middle position and the button just calls. With 3 competing we can assume that others will call the T90 for pot odds and we have a 270 pot without our hero who proceeds to go all in. He gets two callers. Heads up he would have been 56:42 against the Ako. In the 3-way pot he drops only slightly and became an even bigger favorite with the eventual winner falling to 1:3. That is only because of the really dog hand that played; against 89s he'd have no longer been a favorite Yes, he should have won the pot. And we can give him further props for forcing from early position which eliminates all positional advantage.
The reason I don't care for the all-in bet is the number of players remaining. Strong pocket pairs play best heads-up. The fact there is a calling donkey with a horrid hand is really immaterial. Put him on suited connectors or such and the cheese gets really binding. Getting two callers is a worst nightmare. And, 2/3rds of his stack is now at risk.
I wouldn't just call; I would bet T270 here—the pot. It would put the early short stack at risk and really require him committing to the pot. Lets say he does and throws in his 610; a good player on the button will fold Ako. With 2000 chips I might do an easy fold in his position with another strong raiser to act but we'll have him call or raise. If the raise is significant—like an all-in—what does our hero do. He folds. At best he has a race but based on the betting he could easily be dominated. He chose to gamble and it failed with him having the best hand preflop. That happens to us in a tournament almost every time we get a Class-1 hand and miss the flop and see a strong bet; having the best preflop hand and losing or folding is far from unusual. Had he raised and been just been called on the benign flop he would have made himself a prohibitive favorite. We can't say with certainty that the button would have folded but his call would have been very -EV and hero would have had more to hang his hat on.
There are many ways to play the start of a tournament. I have played just like he played and reaped similar results or gotten stacks that would pretty much assure approaching the money.. It is a viable option to try to build a big stack while the dogs are still barking. The thing is it isn't that +EV and there should be no complaining when it flames out.
Many, if not most, on-line tournaments are pogo-stick tournaments. They are filled with gamblers. Even good players will often gamble because of the situation. But, if you've been watching the Pro Poker Tour broadcast, you'll have seen the pros play lower blinds and you have seen some low pot poker where the pro is actually trying to keep the pot reasonable with his bets—just like Mr. Button above. If you visit card player results and look at the graphs for the consistent pros you will usually see a steady climb. And you can find some charts of major tournament forces with charts that look like the skyline of the Titons. The difference is having a preflop or postflop mentality. If you can become confident in your post flop play, you will have more consistent success. Underline that sentence and take it to the bank.
Can one fold QQ? Yes, it shouldn't be that hard. I can even make a case for folding AA.
We have met the enemy and he is us! – Pogo
but, that isn't exactly what we are talking about.
During the WSOP I've been a reader of RPG; but that is a whole other story and more suited to The National Inquirer. Today, someone called OldWolf lamented over his misfortune and even provided a hand history. It detailed another horrible beat which is his lamented lot in life. Sounded like he played a bunch of tournaments and not reached the first break.
PokerStars Game #5960074191: Tournament #29830440, $3.00+$0.30 Hold'em
No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2006/08/18 - 04:49:00 (ET)
Table '29830440 43' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: biksta (670 in chips)
Seat 2: QONF&@* (1240 in chips)
Seat 3: squeakyh11 (3165 in chips)
Seat 4: ace1ofhearts (1395 in chips)
Seat 5: oscelio (2985 in chips)
Seat 6: Old Wolf NZ (3495 in chips)
Seat 7: noofster (2180 in chips)
Seat 8: brnblk (1440 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 9: Alchera (2010 in chips)
Old Wolf NZ: posts small blind 15
noofster: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Old Wolf NZ [Qd Qs]
brnblk: folds
Alchera: folds
biksta: raises 30 to 60
QONF&@*: raises 30 to 90
squeakyh11: folds
ace1ofhearts: folds
oscelio: calls 90
Old Wolf NZ: raises 3405 to 3495 and is all-in
noofster: folds
biksta: calls 610 and is all-in
QONF&@*: folds
oscelio: calls 2895 and is all-in
*** FLOP *** [8s 3c 7c]
*** TURN *** [8s 3c 7c] [3s]
*** RIVER *** [8s 3c 7c 3s] [Ks]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Old Wolf NZ: shows [Qd Qs] (two pair, Queens and Threes)
oscelio: shows [As Kh] (two pair, Kings and Threes)
oscelio collected 4630 from side pot
biksta: shows [4c Ad] (a pair of Threes)
oscelio collected 2130 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Seat 5: oscelio (button) showed [As Kh] and won (6760) with two pair,
Kings and Threes
What does this jewel tell us?
First, the game has barely begun. Blinds are at Level II. And, it is a low rent tournament with even more novice players than the norm. That is a good time to try to build a stack but it is also the time of the most suckouts.
Our hero is in the small blind. The betting is: a raise from early position; a reraise from early middle position and the button just calls. With 3 competing we can assume that others will call the T90 for pot odds and we have a 270 pot without our hero who proceeds to go all in. He gets two callers. Heads up he would have been 56:42 against the Ako. In the 3-way pot he drops only slightly and became an even bigger favorite with the eventual winner falling to 1:3. That is only because of the really dog hand that played; against 89s he'd have no longer been a favorite Yes, he should have won the pot. And we can give him further props for forcing from early position which eliminates all positional advantage.
The reason I don't care for the all-in bet is the number of players remaining. Strong pocket pairs play best heads-up. The fact there is a calling donkey with a horrid hand is really immaterial. Put him on suited connectors or such and the cheese gets really binding. Getting two callers is a worst nightmare. And, 2/3rds of his stack is now at risk.
I wouldn't just call; I would bet T270 here—the pot. It would put the early short stack at risk and really require him committing to the pot. Lets say he does and throws in his 610; a good player on the button will fold Ako. With 2000 chips I might do an easy fold in his position with another strong raiser to act but we'll have him call or raise. If the raise is significant—like an all-in—what does our hero do. He folds. At best he has a race but based on the betting he could easily be dominated. He chose to gamble and it failed with him having the best hand preflop. That happens to us in a tournament almost every time we get a Class-1 hand and miss the flop and see a strong bet; having the best preflop hand and losing or folding is far from unusual. Had he raised and been just been called on the benign flop he would have made himself a prohibitive favorite. We can't say with certainty that the button would have folded but his call would have been very -EV and hero would have had more to hang his hat on.
There are many ways to play the start of a tournament. I have played just like he played and reaped similar results or gotten stacks that would pretty much assure approaching the money.. It is a viable option to try to build a big stack while the dogs are still barking. The thing is it isn't that +EV and there should be no complaining when it flames out.
Many, if not most, on-line tournaments are pogo-stick tournaments. They are filled with gamblers. Even good players will often gamble because of the situation. But, if you've been watching the Pro Poker Tour broadcast, you'll have seen the pros play lower blinds and you have seen some low pot poker where the pro is actually trying to keep the pot reasonable with his bets—just like Mr. Button above. If you visit card player results and look at the graphs for the consistent pros you will usually see a steady climb. And you can find some charts of major tournament forces with charts that look like the skyline of the Titons. The difference is having a preflop or postflop mentality. If you can become confident in your post flop play, you will have more consistent success. Underline that sentence and take it to the bank.
Can one fold QQ? Yes, it shouldn't be that hard. I can even make a case for folding AA.
